Event of the Month

The limits of Europe
DOOR TO TURKEY’S EU ACCESSION AJAR, BUT NO GUARANTEES GIVEN
WRITTEN BY Balázs Pócs

European leaders have decided to open the European Union’s door to Turkey for EU membership talks, but due to strong opposition from certain member states, Brussels specified such discussions are no guarantee for eventual admission. The rather lengthy list of EU requirements is topped by the request that Ankara recognize Cyprus before membership talks begin in October 2005. The EU will also start accession negotiations with Croatia next year, while Romania and Bulgaria are slated to sign accession treaties in April 2005.

Turkey clearly dominated the Dec. 16-17 EU summit in Brussels. Although the country’s membership bid was finally accepted, European heads of state and government set tough pre-conditions. The 25 EU leaders said they would open accession negotiations with Turkey Oct. 3, 2005, but warned talks would be open-ended with no guaranteed outcome. French President Jacques Chirac, one of the main opponents of Turkish membership, tried to reassure the deeply skeptical public opinion. “Turkey faces a long and hard journey over the next 10-15 years to attain its goal of joining the European Union. The opening of negotiations does not, naturally, mean accession,” he stressed. But whatever happens, the landmark deal will certainly change the face of Europe and Turkey in coming decades. “It is a historic event. It shows that those who believe there is some fundamental clash in civilizations between Christians and Muslims are actually wrong,” British Prime Minister Tony Blair said after the summit.

ANKARA UNHAPPY OVER CYPRUS CRITERION
Despite the last minute agreement, Turkish Prime Minister Racep Tayyip Erdogan said he was disappointed by the EU’s insistence on Cyprus. As a pre-condition for starting accession talks, Ankara will have to extend a 1963 customs agreement to cover the 10 new member states, including Cyprus. This would actually mean acknowledging Cyprus as an EU member, which has not been the case so far. Dutch Premier Jan-Peter Balkenende, holder of the EU presidency, was careful to stress that “this in itself is not a formal and legal recognition of Cyprus, but it is a step that can lead to progress.” Cyprus has been divided as a Greek-controlled south and Turkish-controlled north since Turkey invaded the country in 1974. Currently, Ankara has 30,000 troops stationed on the island. Turkey has always refused to recognize the Greek Cypriot government – a government that is now an EU member. Negotiations at the Brussels summit were intense and sometimes emotional. At one point, Erdogan threatened to walk out after Cyprus demanded a written commitment. “You are choosing 600,000 Greek Cypriots over 70 million Turks, and I cannot explain this to my people,” he told Balkenende. The Turkish premier was finally dissuaded by Blair, Balkenende and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. EU leaders even kept UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan waiting for one-and-a-half-hours as they negotiated the Cyprus issue. Cyprus aside, the Turkish prime minister returned home to a hero’s welcome after the Brussels summit. Addressing thousands of cheering people in Ankara, Erdogan said: “Turkey will become different in every way. We will not rest on our laurels because our aim every day now is to move forward, forward, forward.”

A LONG AND ARDUOUS PATH
The integration of Turkey, however, will be a long and uncertain process. The final agreement made clear that Ankara could join the EU in 2014 at the earliest. Chirac underlined that each EU member has the right to block negotiations with Turkey if deemed necessary. He himself has promised French voters a referendum on Turkey’s entry. “Violations of human rights or other fundamental rights could see the EU suspend accession talks at any moment during the negotiation period,” the French president warned in Brussels. Analysts also warned that the Turkish issue may well be an obstacle in the ratification of the EU’s first constitution. All 25 member states must approve the document and at least 10 have announced they will hold referendums. “If there is a link between Turkey and the constitution, we will lose the referendum. It is as simple as that,” French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier told reporters in Paris. According to a recent poll, 67% of the French oppose Turkish membership. A protest vote may also threaten ratification in the Netherlands, Denmark and the UK.

EASTERN EXPANSION
Well before Turkey may join the European Union, a second wave of eastern enlargement will take place. EU leaders gave the final green light to Romania and Bulgaria for joining in 2007. Member states agreed that the accession treaties, outlining the exact terms of membership for both countries, should be signed in April 2005. “Today, Bulgaria saw the shores of the promised land. After a long journey, our efforts have been rewarded,” said Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy. Nevertheless, the European Commission will continue to monitor the two countries closely, particularly Romania, which only finished negotiating the last chapters of EU legislation a few days before the Brussels summit. For Bulgaria, the chapter on justice and home affairs was singled out to be watched closely, while in Romania, competition and environmental issues will be followed more closely by the EU. Safeguard clauses may be applied for both countries before they join and for three years after they become members, in case they fall back on commitments. As for the accession date, Bulgaria and Romania agreed their entry could be delayed to 2008 from 2007 if they fail to implement agreed reforms on fighting corruption, strengthening borders, reinforcing the judicial system and ending illegal state aid in various economic sectors. While Bulgaria’s accession may only be delayed by a unanimous vote of the 25 member states, in the case of Romania a qualified majority decision is enough.

CROATIA IN 2009?
Croatia will be allowed to start accession negotiations in March 2005 but only if Zagreb shows it is fully cooperating with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The green light has another condition attached. In their final statement, EU leaders “reiterated that remaining inductees must be located and transferred to The Hague as soon as possible.”

This refers to general Ante Gotovina, the UN court’s third most wanted fugitive. He disappeared the day before the tribunal made public his indictment in July 2001 and has not yet been found. Chief war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte told the UN Security Council in November 2004 that Zagreb failed to cooperate sufficiently in catching Gotovina. Although the general is accused of killings during Croatia’s final offensive against rebel Serbs in 1995, he is regarded by many Croats as a war hero.

Zagreb wanted an unconditional date for accession talks, but EU members (especially the UK, the Netherlands and Sweden) wanted to maintain pressure. Croatia had originally hoped to catch up with Bulgaria and Romania in joining the EU in 2007, but diplomats now say 2009 is the earliest realistic date.

Turkey: pros and cons in brief
Supporters of Turkey’s accession argue that Turkey’s geopolitical situation, its culture and religion could constitute a bridge between Europe and the Muslim world. The country has the second-biggest army in NATO and a strategic reach into the Middle East. Turkey also has one of Europe’s fastest growing economies. The prospect of membership is forcing the Turkish government to pursue economic and political reforms. Meanwhile, opponents claim that despite impressive progress on paper, Turkey is still lagging seriously behind in its fight against human rights abuses and corruption. Geographically and culturally, Muslim Turkey is more Asiatic than European. The country’s size would impose great strain on the EU budget, with huge financial transfers needed to bring Turkey’s infrastructure and administration up to European levels.